·        Date: November 25, 2024

The Euribor, the benchmark index for most variable mortgages in Europe, is showing a downward trend that could mean significant relief for millions of mortgage holders. On November 25, 2024, the daily Euribor registered a new annual low at 2.416%, coming close to closing the month with an average below 2.5%, something that has not been seen since September 2022.
Eight Consecutive Days of Declines
November has been a positive month for those with variable mortgages. The Euribor has accumulated eight consecutive days of falls, discounting 0.21 basis points. Although slight increases have been recorded, the provisional monthly average remains at 2.52%, with a high probability of breaking the 2.5% barrier.
If the daily rate remains around 2.4%, the monthly average could close at 2.49%, a significant drop that would directly impact mortgage payments.
What to expect for 2025?
With the end of 2024 in sight, the projections for 2025 are encouraging. Analysts expect the Euribor to continue to fall, driven by the interest rate cut policies implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Projections for 2025:
• Second quarter: Panels such as Funcas anticipate that the Euribor will be around 2.46%.
• End of the year: A rate of 2.35% is projected.
• Euribor futures: Contracts for December 2025 suggest a drop to 1.93%, reflecting expectations of a more accessible market.
Impact on Mortgages: A Noticeable Relief
The fall in the Euribor is already having a tangible impact on variable mortgages. When compared to the 2023 figures, the savings are evident.
Savings Example:
• Standard mortgage: 140,000 euros, 30-year term, 1% spread.
• November 2023: Euribor at 4.022%, monthly payment of 753.43 euros.
• November 2024: Provisional average of 2.52%, monthly payment of 601.02 euros.
This represents a monthly saving of 152.41 euros, a significant difference for many families.
How is the Euribor Calculated?
The Euribor (European InterBank Offered Rate) is calculated based on loans between large European banks. Its calculation method is hybrid, combining real transaction data with market estimates to reduce manipulation risks.
• Daily publication: Every day at 11:00 in the morning, the average rate for terms of one week, one month, three months, six months and 12 months is published.
• Participating entities: Banks such as Santander, BBVA, Deutsche Bank and Barclays are part of the panel.
A Breath of Fresh Air for Mortgages
The drop in the Euribor is a relief after years of financial tension for families. With forecasts of continued declines in 2025, many mortgage holders are optimistic about the possibility of more affordable installments.
Final Reflection:
Every tenth that the Euribor drops represents a breath of fresh air for millions of families in Europe. Although this relief is welcome, it also poses challenges in balancing monetary policies with the impact on financial markets and the general economy. For now, everything points to the fact that good news will continue to arrive in the coming months.